{
  "publisher": "Pacific Alpha Intelligence, LLC",
  "site": "https://pacificalphaintel.com",
  "description": "Systematic Asia Pacific political-economy intelligence. Countries graded A-F on ten Friedman-framework KPIs, an Alpha Fragility Index (AFI), timestamped Signals, and a live event-markets feed. Research publisher; not a registered investment adviser.",
  "as_of": "2026-06-19",
  "methodology": {
    "grade_scale": "Graded against the world distribution. C = global median; A = top ~10%, B = top ~25%, D = bottom ~25%, F = bottom ~10%; +/- shifts within a band.",
    "afi": "Alpha Fragility Index, 0-100 across five 0-20 pillars; higher = more fragile. South-East Asia panel only.",
    "disclaimer": "The model portfolio is hypothetical and illustrative and does not represent actual client trading. Pacific Alpha is a research and intelligence publisher, not a registered investment adviser."
  },
  "countries": [
    {"name": "Singapore", "grade": "A-", "afi": null},
    {"name": "South Korea", "grade": "B", "afi": null},
    {"name": "Japan", "grade": "B-", "afi": null},
    {"name": "Taiwan", "grade": "B-", "afi": null},
    {"name": "Hong Kong", "grade": "B-", "afi": null},
    {"name": "India", "grade": "C+", "afi": null},
    {"name": "Malaysia", "grade": "C", "afi": 49, "last_changed": "2026-06-02"},
    {"name": "Vietnam", "grade": "C-", "afi": 58},
    {"name": "China", "grade": "C-", "afi": null},
    {"name": "Thailand", "grade": "D+", "afi": 69},
    {"name": "Philippines", "grade": null, "status": "coverage Q3 2026"},
    {"name": "Indonesia", "grade": null, "status": "coverage Q3 2026"}
  ],
  "signals": [
    {"date": "2026-06-02", "country": "Malaysia", "type": "grade_change", "direction": "negative", "summary": "Downgraded C+ to C; UMNO broke from the Anwar coalition, introducing snap-election risk."},
    {"date": "2026-02-09", "country": "Japan", "type": "leadership", "direction": "positive", "summary": "Takaichi wins LDP supermajority."},
    {"date": "2026-04-07", "country": "Vietnam", "type": "leadership", "direction": "neutral", "summary": "To Lam consolidates Party Secretary-General and State President."},
    {"date": "2025-06-03", "country": "South Korea", "type": "leadership", "direction": "negative", "summary": "Lee Jae-myung elected; chaebol-intervention risk."}
  ],
  "events": {
    "live": [
      {"country": "Malaysia", "question": "Will Pacific Alpha downgrade Malaysia to C- by September 30, 2026?", "pa_estimate": 0.40, "resolves_on": "PA Malaysia grade after the Johor state election", "trigger": "BN loses its supermajority (poll due on or before Jul 29)"},
      {"country": "Malaysia", "question": "Will Malaysia's AFI exceed 55 by the Q3 2026 review?", "pa_estimate": 0.45, "resolves_on": "PA Malaysia AFI (currently 49)"},
      {"country": "Philippines", "question": "Will Pacific Alpha grade the Philippines C- or lower at first coverage?", "pa_estimate": 0.60, "resolves_on": "PA Philippines first published grade", "window": "Q3 2026"},
      {"country": "Indonesia", "question": "Will Pacific Alpha grade Indonesia B- or higher at first coverage?", "pa_estimate": 0.35, "window": "Q3 2026"},
      {"country": "Japan", "question": "Will the Bank of Japan raise the policy rate to 1.25% by year-end?", "pa_estimate": 0.55, "resolves_on": "BoJ policy rate (external)"},
      {"country": "Thailand", "question": "Will Pacific Alpha upgrade Thailand from D+ before year-end?", "pa_estimate": 0.20, "resolves_on": "PA Thailand grade"}
    ],
    "resolved": [
      {"date": "2026-06-16", "country": "Japan", "question": "Bank of Japan June rate decision", "outcome": "Hiked +25bp to 1.00% (7-1 vote)", "source": "Bank of Japan"},
      {"date": "2025-06-03", "country": "South Korea", "question": "2025 presidential race", "outcome": "Lee Jae-myung elected", "source": "Official result / Polymarket"}
    ]
  },
  "model_portfolio": {
    "as_of": "2026-06-15", "inception": "2026-05-21",
    "return_pct": 3.52, "benchmark": "MSCI AC Asia Pacific", "benchmark_return_pct": -0.87,
    "positions": ["Bitcoin", "Hyundai Motor (005380.KS)", "Naver (035420.KS)", "Sony (6758.T)", "Sea Limited (SE)", "Toss / Viva Republica (pre-IPO)"],
    "note": "Hypothetical, illustrative model portfolio. Not actual client trading."
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "license": "Public summary data, free to read and cite with attribution. Full methodology and the dated judgement record are at pacificalphaintel.com."
}