{
  "publisher": "Pacific Alpha Intelligence, LLC",
  "site": "https://pacificalphaintel.com",
  "slogan": "Make the scoreboard public.",
  "mission": "Asia is the world's largest economic opportunity and its most squandered, held back less by capability than by government: capital controls, opaque statistics, politicised institutions, policy that protects incumbents over builders. The house thesis is that countries compete for capital the way companies compete for customers, and making that competition visible is the most powerful force for reform. The policies that work are not a mystery: open capital accounts, honest data, sound money, the rule of law. Pacific Alpha exists to make the scoreboard public, grading governments against the world distribution in dated, sourced judgments that cannot be quietly revised, so capital flows to the countries that earn it and the cost of bad policy becomes impossible to hide. More at https://pacificalphaintel.com/about",
  "description": "Systematic Asia Pacific political-economy intelligence. Countries graded A-F on ten Friedman-framework KPIs, an Alpha Fragility Index (AFI), timestamped Signals, and a live event-markets feed. Research publisher; not a registered investment adviser.",
  "as_of": "2026-07-03",
  "methodology": {
    "grade_scale": "Graded against the world distribution. C = global median; A = top ~10%, B = top ~25%, D = bottom ~25%, F = bottom ~10%; +/- shifts within a band.",
    "afi": "Alpha Fragility Index, 0-100 across five 0-20 pillars; higher = more fragile. South-East Asia panel only.",
    "disclaimer": "The model portfolio is hypothetical and illustrative and does not represent actual client trading. Pacific Alpha is a research and intelligence publisher, not a registered investment adviser.",
    "pillars": "Since Jul 2026: overall grade = mean of six equal-weight pillars (Growth; Income & Human Capital; Price & Monetary; Openness & External incl. capital-account and trade-freedom; Institutions & Rule of Law; Physical Capital), rounded to the nearest step, minus at most ONE documented risk-overlay notch. Every overlay is a dated record in the judgement_corpus section of this file (also published at /corpus.json). Grades set by an open Signal hold until the Signal trigger resolves (Malaysia held at C pending Johor)."
  },
  "countries": [
    {
      "name": "Singapore",
      "grade": "A-",
      "afi": null
    },
    {
      "name": "South Korea",
      "grade": "B",
      "afi": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Japan",
      "grade": "B",
      "afi": null,
      "last_changed": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "Taiwan",
      "grade": "B",
      "afi": null,
      "last_changed": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "Hong Kong",
      "grade": "B",
      "afi": null,
      "last_changed": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "India",
      "grade": "C+",
      "afi": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Malaysia",
      "grade": "C",
      "afi": 49,
      "last_changed": "2026-06-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "Vietnam",
      "grade": "C-",
      "afi": 58
    },
    {
      "name": "China",
      "grade": "C-",
      "afi": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Thailand",
      "grade": "C-",
      "afi": 69,
      "last_changed": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "Philippines",
      "grade": null,
      "status": "coverage Q3 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "Indonesia",
      "grade": null,
      "status": "coverage Q3 2026"
    }
  ],
  "signals": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-03",
      "country": "South Korea",
      "type": "structural",
      "direction": "negative",
      "summary": "Won breaks the 1,300-1,450 structural range (~1,530, -10% y/y) on resident capital outflows exceeding the current-account surplus; BOK unable to cut into a weakening currency. Monetary Stability KPI B+ to B (JC-2026-0008); country grade B holds. Next checkpoint: BOK Jul 9; escalation trigger: won >1,550."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "country": "Multiple",
      "type": "methodology",
      "direction": "neutral",
      "summary": "Six-pillar grading model adopted; Thailand D+ to C-, Japan B- to B, Taiwan B- to B, Hong Kong B- to B; China C- and Malaysia C reaffirmed with documented overlays."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-02",
      "country": "Malaysia",
      "type": "grade_change",
      "direction": "negative",
      "summary": "Downgraded C+ to C; UMNO broke from the Anwar coalition, introducing snap-election risk."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-09",
      "country": "Japan",
      "type": "leadership",
      "direction": "positive",
      "summary": "Takaichi wins LDP supermajority."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "country": "Vietnam",
      "type": "leadership",
      "direction": "neutral",
      "summary": "To Lam consolidates Party Secretary-General and State President."
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-06-03",
      "country": "South Korea",
      "type": "leadership",
      "direction": "negative",
      "summary": "Lee Jae-myung elected; chaebol-intervention risk."
    }
  ],
  "events": {
    "live": [
      {
        "country": "Malaysia",
        "question": "Will Pacific Alpha downgrade Malaysia to C- by September 30, 2026?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.4,
        "resolves_on": "PA Malaysia grade after the Johor state election",
        "trigger": "BN loses its supermajority (poll due on or before Jul 29)"
      },
      {
        "country": "Malaysia",
        "question": "Will Malaysia's AFI exceed 55 by the Q3 2026 review?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.45,
        "resolves_on": "PA Malaysia AFI (currently 49)"
      },
      {
        "country": "Philippines",
        "question": "Will Pacific Alpha grade the Philippines C- or lower at first coverage?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.6,
        "resolves_on": "PA Philippines first published grade",
        "window": "Q3 2026"
      },
      {
        "country": "Indonesia",
        "question": "Will Pacific Alpha grade Indonesia B- or higher at first coverage?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.35,
        "window": "Q3 2026"
      },
      {
        "country": "Japan",
        "question": "Will the Bank of Japan raise the policy rate to 1.25% by year-end?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.55,
        "resolves_on": "BoJ policy rate (external)"
      }
    ],
    "resolved": [
      {
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "country": "Thailand",
        "question": "Will Pacific Alpha upgrade Thailand from D+ before year-end?",
        "outcome": "YES on technical grounds — D+ to C- via the Jul 2 six-pillar methodology revision, not a country-improvement call (PA estimate was 0.20)",
        "source": "Pacific Alpha methodology revision"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-16",
        "country": "Japan",
        "question": "Bank of Japan June rate decision",
        "outcome": "Hiked +25bp to 1.00% (7-1 vote)",
        "source": "Bank of Japan"
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-03",
        "country": "South Korea",
        "question": "2025 presidential race",
        "outcome": "Lee Jae-myung elected",
        "source": "Official result / Polymarket"
      }
    ]
  },
  "model_portfolio": {
    "as_of": "2026-07-03",
    "inception": "2026-05-21",
    "return_pct": -2.1,
    "benchmark": "MSCI AC Asia Pacific",
    "benchmark_return_pct": 2.49,
    "positions": [
      "Bitcoin",
      "Hyundai Motor (005380.KS)",
      "Naver (035420.KS)",
      "Sony (6758.T)",
      "Sea Limited (SE)",
      "Toss / Viva Republica (pre-IPO)"
    ],
    "note": "Hypothetical, illustrative model portfolio. Not actual client trading."
  },
  "scored_predictions": {
    "programme": "Five explicit predictions per quarter — unambiguous statement, exact success criterion, stated confidence. Immutable once posted; publicly Brier-scored the following quarter; misses get a published post-mortem. Brier = (confidence - outcome)^2, outcome 1 = hit, 0 = miss.",
    "quarter": "Q3 2026",
    "posted": "2026-07",
    "scored_in": "Q4 2026 review",
    "predictions": [
      {
        "id": "P1",
        "statement": "Pacific Alpha downgrades Malaysia from C to C-",
        "criterion": "Dated grade-change record (C to C-) published on or before 2026-09-30",
        "confidence": 0.4,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null
      },
      {
        "id": "P2",
        "statement": "Malaysia's AFI exceeds 55 at the Q3 review",
        "criterion": "Published Q3 AFI composite > 55 (currently 49); exactly 55 or below = miss",
        "confidence": 0.45,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null,
        "note": "Correlated with P1 (shared Johor trigger)"
      },
      {
        "id": "P3",
        "statement": "The Philippines' first published grade is C- or lower",
        "criterion": "First published overall grade <= C- at Q3 2026 coverage launch",
        "confidence": 0.6,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null
      },
      {
        "id": "P4",
        "statement": "Indonesia's first published grade is B- or higher",
        "criterion": "First published overall grade >= B- at Q3 2026 coverage launch",
        "confidence": 0.35,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null
      },
      {
        "id": "P5",
        "statement": "The BoJ policy rate is still 1.00% on Sep 30, 2026",
        "criterion": "BoJ target rate = 1.00% at close 2026-09-30 per BoJ statements (external resolution); any change = miss",
        "confidence": 0.65,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "license": "Public summary data, free to read and cite with attribution. Full methodology and the dated judgement record are at pacificalphaintel.com.",
  "judgement_corpus": {
    "title": "Structured Judgement Corpus",
    "description": "Append-only record of every dated analytical judgement: grade changes, AFI pillar updates, recommendation rank changes, and initiative stage transitions. Records are never edited or deleted after publication; corrections are issued as new records referencing the original. This dated chain is the Pacific Alpha moat: it cannot be back-filled by a competitor.",
    "append_only": true,
    "as_of": "2026-07-03",
    "records": [
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0001",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Malaysia",
        "date": "2026-06-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good",
        "from": "C+",
        "to": "C",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "negative",
        "reasoning": "Two institutional-quality events in ninety days moved Malaysia from the upper to the middle of the C band. The failure of the parliamentary term-limit bill (Mar 2026) removed the cycle's clearest structural-reform marker, and UMNO's public break from the Anwar-led coalition (Jun 1) converted background coalition friction into live snap-election risk. Governance trajectory, not level, drove the change: the world-distribution percentile inputs were already borderline, and the political-execution pillar deteriorated.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Parliamentary term-limit bill failed to pass",
            "date": "2026-03",
            "source": "Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026 (Signals feed, pacificalphaintel.com)"
          },
          {
            "fact": "UMNO publicly broke from the Anwar (PH-led) governing coalition, introducing snap-election risk",
            "date": "2026-06-01",
            "source": "Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026 (Signals feed, pacificalphaintel.com)"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Johor state election result (constitutionally due within 60 days of Jun 1, i.e. on or before Jul 29 2026): coalition loss of more than 15 seats, or a snap federal election call",
          "action": "review for downgrade to C-",
          "review_by": "2026-07-29"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0002",
        "type": "initiative_stage",
        "country": "ALL",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "silent discretionary discounts",
        "to": "six-pillar composite + documented one-notch overlays",
        "prior_value_held_since": null,
        "direction": "neutral",
        "reasoning": "Audit found published grades sat 0.2-0.6 below KPI averages via undocumented discounts, and overlapping KPIs (institutions x3, monetary x2, income x3) carried accidental weight. Fix: six equal-weight pillars; capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito) and trade freedom (Heritage) added as graded Openness KPIs; overlays capped at one notch and recorded. Malaysia HELD at C (pillar mean implies C+) under the open Jun 2 Signal window — signal-set grades take precedence until their trigger resolves.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Reconciliation audit + pillar computation",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "reconcile_audit.js / pillar_grades.js"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Johor result (Malaysia re-set through pillar model)",
          "action": "re-grade Malaysia",
          "review_by": "2026-07-29"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0003",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Thailand",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "D+",
        "to": "C-",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "positive",
        "reasoning": "Pillar mean 2.00 (C) minus documented political-execution overlay (reform off the table; AFI 69). Methodology-driven revision, NOT a country-improvement call; the D+ verdict prose stands. Related live event resolved YES on technical grounds and flagged as such.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
          "action": "re-grade",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0004",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Japan",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "B-",
        "to": "B",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "positive",
        "reasoning": "Pillar mean 2.95 (B); no overlay warranted — the old B- embedded an undocumented -0.17 discount. Openness strong (capital account ~96 open), institutions B+.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
          "action": "re-grade",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0005",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Taiwan",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "B-",
        "to": "B",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "positive",
        "reasoning": "Pillar mean 3.37 (B+) minus the documented one-notch cross-strait overlay — a probability-weighted catastrophic tail no KPI captures. Previously a silent ~2-notch discount; now capped and recorded.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
          "action": "re-grade",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0006",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Hong Kong",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "B-",
        "to": "B",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "positive",
        "reasoning": "Pillar mean 3.30 (B+) minus the documented one-notch two-track-law overlay (commercial law top-decile; political law Beijing-determined; NSL/Art.23, judicial departures).",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
          "action": "re-grade",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0007",
        "type": "kpi_grade_change",
        "country": "China",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "GDP Growth B- / CPI C+ / Monetary C+ (official-data based)",
        "to": "GDP Growth C / CPI C- / Monetary C- (independent gauges)",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "negative",
        "reasoning": "China data rule propagation: headline independent gauges, never official NBS/PBOC. Growth ~2-3% (Rhodium basis) = global median = C; GDP deflator -0.8% is persistent deflation with a debt overhang = price instability = C-; monetary policy fighting unbeaten deflation behind capital controls = C-. Overall stays C-: pillar mean 2.01 (C) minus the documented policy-arbitrariness overlay (Ant, DiDi, VIE non-ownership).",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "GDP deflator -0.8% 2025; independent growth ~2-3%; Chinn-Ito ~17 (bottom decile)",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "data/METHODOLOGY.md China rule; comparison charts"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 review",
          "action": "re-check gauges",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0008",
        "type": "kpi_grade_change",
        "country": "South Korea",
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / monthly FX review",
        "from": "Monetary Stability B+",
        "to": "Monetary Stability B",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "negative",
        "reasoning": "The won broke the 1,300-1,450 range previously treated as structural (~1,530, -10% y/y). The downgrade is not on the FX level itself but on the demonstrated loss of monetary-policy room: BOK cannot cut into a weakening currency (60% of surveyed economists expect no 2026 cut for exactly this reason), the real policy rate is slightly negative (2.50% vs June CPI 3.2%) with inflation 1.2pp above target, and resident capital outflows now exceed the current-account surplus. Country grade B held: one notch on one KPI inside the Monetary pillar does not move the six-pillar mean.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "KRW ~1,530/USD, -10% y/y; through the stated 1,300-1,450 structural range",
            "date": "2026-06-18",
            "source": "Trading Economics interbank snapshot"
          },
          {
            "fact": "Residents invested $129.4B overseas Jan-Nov 2025 vs $101.8B current-account surplus; foreign net KOSPI selling W136.78T (~$89B) Jan-late Jun 2026",
            "date": "2026-06-30",
            "source": "Korea Times / KEIA"
          },
          {
            "fact": "60% of surveyed economists expect no BOK cut in 2026 amid won weakness",
            "date": "2026-02",
            "source": "KED Global"
          },
          {
            "fact": "BOK base rate 2.50% (held May 28, 8th consecutive); June CPI 3.2% -> real rate -0.7pp",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "Bank of Korea / Statistics Korea"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": "BOK meeting Jul 9 2026; won >1,550; or Q3 quarterly review - whichever first",
        "supersedes": null
      }
    ]
  }
}