{
  "publisher": "Pacific Alpha Intelligence, LLC",
  "site": "https://pacificalphaintel.com",
  "description": "Systematic Asia Pacific political-economy intelligence. Countries graded A-F on ten Friedman-framework KPIs, an Alpha Fragility Index (AFI), timestamped Signals, and a live event-markets feed. Research publisher; not a registered investment adviser.",
  "as_of": "2026-07-02",
  "methodology": {
    "grade_scale": "Graded against the world distribution. C = global median; A = top ~10%, B = top ~25%, D = bottom ~25%, F = bottom ~10%; +/- shifts within a band.",
    "afi": "Alpha Fragility Index, 0-100 across five 0-20 pillars; higher = more fragile. South-East Asia panel only.",
    "disclaimer": "The model portfolio is hypothetical and illustrative and does not represent actual client trading. Pacific Alpha is a research and intelligence publisher, not a registered investment adviser.",
    "pillars": "Since Jul 2026: overall grade = mean of six equal-weight pillars (Growth; Income & Human Capital; Price & Monetary; Openness & External incl. capital-account and trade-freedom; Institutions & Rule of Law; Physical Capital), rounded to the nearest step, minus at most ONE documented risk-overlay notch. Every overlay is a dated record in the judgement_corpus section of this file (also published at /corpus.json). Grades set by an open Signal hold until the Signal trigger resolves (Malaysia held at C pending Johor)."
  },
  "countries": [
    {
      "name": "Singapore",
      "grade": "A-",
      "afi": null
    },
    {
      "name": "South Korea",
      "grade": "B",
      "afi": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Japan",
      "grade": "B",
      "afi": null,
      "last_changed": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "Taiwan",
      "grade": "B",
      "afi": null,
      "last_changed": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "Hong Kong",
      "grade": "B",
      "afi": null,
      "last_changed": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "India",
      "grade": "C+",
      "afi": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Malaysia",
      "grade": "C",
      "afi": 49,
      "last_changed": "2026-06-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "Vietnam",
      "grade": "C-",
      "afi": 58
    },
    {
      "name": "China",
      "grade": "C-",
      "afi": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Thailand",
      "grade": "C-",
      "afi": 69,
      "last_changed": "2026-07-02"
    },
    {
      "name": "Philippines",
      "grade": null,
      "status": "coverage Q3 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "Indonesia",
      "grade": null,
      "status": "coverage Q3 2026"
    }
  ],
  "signals": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "country": "Multiple",
      "type": "methodology",
      "direction": "neutral",
      "summary": "Six-pillar grading model adopted; Thailand D+ to C-, Japan B- to B, Taiwan B- to B, Hong Kong B- to B; China C- and Malaysia C reaffirmed with documented overlays."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-02",
      "country": "Malaysia",
      "type": "grade_change",
      "direction": "negative",
      "summary": "Downgraded C+ to C; UMNO broke from the Anwar coalition, introducing snap-election risk."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-09",
      "country": "Japan",
      "type": "leadership",
      "direction": "positive",
      "summary": "Takaichi wins LDP supermajority."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "country": "Vietnam",
      "type": "leadership",
      "direction": "neutral",
      "summary": "To Lam consolidates Party Secretary-General and State President."
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-06-03",
      "country": "South Korea",
      "type": "leadership",
      "direction": "negative",
      "summary": "Lee Jae-myung elected; chaebol-intervention risk."
    }
  ],
  "events": {
    "live": [
      {
        "country": "Malaysia",
        "question": "Will Pacific Alpha downgrade Malaysia to C- by September 30, 2026?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.4,
        "resolves_on": "PA Malaysia grade after the Johor state election",
        "trigger": "BN loses its supermajority (poll due on or before Jul 29)"
      },
      {
        "country": "Malaysia",
        "question": "Will Malaysia's AFI exceed 55 by the Q3 2026 review?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.45,
        "resolves_on": "PA Malaysia AFI (currently 49)"
      },
      {
        "country": "Philippines",
        "question": "Will Pacific Alpha grade the Philippines C- or lower at first coverage?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.6,
        "resolves_on": "PA Philippines first published grade",
        "window": "Q3 2026"
      },
      {
        "country": "Indonesia",
        "question": "Will Pacific Alpha grade Indonesia B- or higher at first coverage?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.35,
        "window": "Q3 2026"
      },
      {
        "country": "Japan",
        "question": "Will the Bank of Japan raise the policy rate to 1.25% by year-end?",
        "pa_estimate": 0.55,
        "resolves_on": "BoJ policy rate (external)"
      }
    ],
    "resolved": [
      {
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "country": "Thailand",
        "question": "Will Pacific Alpha upgrade Thailand from D+ before year-end?",
        "outcome": "YES on technical grounds — D+ to C- via the Jul 2 six-pillar methodology revision, not a country-improvement call (PA estimate was 0.20)",
        "source": "Pacific Alpha methodology revision"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-16",
        "country": "Japan",
        "question": "Bank of Japan June rate decision",
        "outcome": "Hiked +25bp to 1.00% (7-1 vote)",
        "source": "Bank of Japan"
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-03",
        "country": "South Korea",
        "question": "2025 presidential race",
        "outcome": "Lee Jae-myung elected",
        "source": "Official result / Polymarket"
      }
    ]
  },
  "model_portfolio": {
    "as_of": "2026-06-15",
    "inception": "2026-05-21",
    "return_pct": 3.52,
    "benchmark": "MSCI AC Asia Pacific",
    "benchmark_return_pct": -0.87,
    "positions": [
      "Bitcoin",
      "Hyundai Motor (005380.KS)",
      "Naver (035420.KS)",
      "Sony (6758.T)",
      "Sea Limited (SE)",
      "Toss / Viva Republica (pre-IPO)"
    ],
    "note": "Hypothetical, illustrative model portfolio. Not actual client trading."
  },
  "scored_predictions": {
    "programme": "Five explicit predictions per quarter — unambiguous statement, exact success criterion, stated confidence. Immutable once posted; publicly Brier-scored the following quarter; misses get a published post-mortem. Brier = (confidence - outcome)^2, outcome 1 = hit, 0 = miss.",
    "quarter": "Q3 2026",
    "posted": "2026-07",
    "scored_in": "Q4 2026 review",
    "predictions": [
      {
        "id": "P1",
        "statement": "Pacific Alpha downgrades Malaysia from C to C-",
        "criterion": "Dated grade-change record (C to C-) published on or before 2026-09-30",
        "confidence": 0.4,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null
      },
      {
        "id": "P2",
        "statement": "Malaysia's AFI exceeds 55 at the Q3 review",
        "criterion": "Published Q3 AFI composite > 55 (currently 49); exactly 55 or below = miss",
        "confidence": 0.45,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null,
        "note": "Correlated with P1 (shared Johor trigger)"
      },
      {
        "id": "P3",
        "statement": "The Philippines' first published grade is C- or lower",
        "criterion": "First published overall grade <= C- at Q3 2026 coverage launch",
        "confidence": 0.6,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null
      },
      {
        "id": "P4",
        "statement": "Indonesia's first published grade is B- or higher",
        "criterion": "First published overall grade >= B- at Q3 2026 coverage launch",
        "confidence": 0.35,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null
      },
      {
        "id": "P5",
        "statement": "The BoJ policy rate is still 1.00% on Sep 30, 2026",
        "criterion": "BoJ target rate = 1.00% at close 2026-09-30 per BoJ statements (external resolution); any change = miss",
        "confidence": 0.65,
        "outcome": null,
        "brier": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "license": "Public summary data, free to read and cite with attribution. Full methodology and the dated judgement record are at pacificalphaintel.com.",
  "judgement_corpus": {
    "title": "Structured Judgement Corpus",
    "description": "Append-only record of every dated analytical judgement: grade changes, AFI pillar updates, recommendation rank changes, and initiative stage transitions. Records are never edited or deleted after publication; corrections are issued as new records referencing the original. This dated chain is the Pacific Alpha moat: it cannot be back-filled by a competitor.",
    "append_only": true,
    "as_of": "2026-07-02",
    "records": [
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0001",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Malaysia",
        "date": "2026-06-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good",
        "from": "C+",
        "to": "C",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "negative",
        "reasoning": "Two institutional-quality events in ninety days moved Malaysia from the upper to the middle of the C band. The failure of the parliamentary term-limit bill (Mar 2026) removed the cycle's clearest structural-reform marker, and UMNO's public break from the Anwar-led coalition (Jun 1) converted background coalition friction into live snap-election risk. Governance trajectory, not level, drove the change: the world-distribution percentile inputs were already borderline, and the political-execution pillar deteriorated.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Parliamentary term-limit bill failed to pass",
            "date": "2026-03",
            "source": "Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026 (Signals feed, pacificalphaintel.com)"
          },
          {
            "fact": "UMNO publicly broke from the Anwar (PH-led) governing coalition, introducing snap-election risk",
            "date": "2026-06-01",
            "source": "Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026 (Signals feed, pacificalphaintel.com)"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Johor state election result (constitutionally due within 60 days of Jun 1, i.e. on or before Jul 29 2026): coalition loss of more than 15 seats, or a snap federal election call",
          "action": "review for downgrade to C-",
          "review_by": "2026-07-29"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0002",
        "type": "initiative_stage",
        "country": "ALL",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "silent discretionary discounts",
        "to": "six-pillar composite + documented one-notch overlays",
        "prior_value_held_since": null,
        "direction": "neutral",
        "reasoning": "Audit found published grades sat 0.2-0.6 below KPI averages via undocumented discounts, and overlapping KPIs (institutions x3, monetary x2, income x3) carried accidental weight. Fix: six equal-weight pillars; capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito) and trade freedom (Heritage) added as graded Openness KPIs; overlays capped at one notch and recorded. Malaysia HELD at C (pillar mean implies C+) under the open Jun 2 Signal window — signal-set grades take precedence until their trigger resolves.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Reconciliation audit + pillar computation",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "reconcile_audit.js / pillar_grades.js"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Johor result (Malaysia re-set through pillar model)",
          "action": "re-grade Malaysia",
          "review_by": "2026-07-29"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0003",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Thailand",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "D+",
        "to": "C-",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "positive",
        "reasoning": "Pillar mean 2.00 (C) minus documented political-execution overlay (reform off the table; AFI 69). Methodology-driven revision, NOT a country-improvement call; the D+ verdict prose stands. Related live event resolved YES on technical grounds and flagged as such.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
          "action": "re-grade",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0004",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Japan",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "B-",
        "to": "B",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "positive",
        "reasoning": "Pillar mean 2.95 (B); no overlay warranted — the old B- embedded an undocumented -0.17 discount. Openness strong (capital account ~96 open), institutions B+.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
          "action": "re-grade",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0005",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Taiwan",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "B-",
        "to": "B",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "positive",
        "reasoning": "Pillar mean 3.37 (B+) minus the documented one-notch cross-strait overlay — a probability-weighted catastrophic tail no KPI captures. Previously a silent ~2-notch discount; now capped and recorded.",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
          "action": "re-grade",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0006",
        "type": "grade_change",
        "country": "Hong Kong",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "B-",
        "to": "B",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "positive",
        "reasoning": "Pillar mean 3.30 (B+) minus the documented one-notch two-track-law overlay (commercial law top-decile; political law Beijing-determined; NSL/Art.23, judicial departures).",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
          "action": "re-grade",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      },
      {
        "id": "JC-2026-0007",
        "type": "kpi_grade_change",
        "country": "China",
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
        "from": "GDP Growth B- / CPI C+ / Monetary C+ (official-data based)",
        "to": "GDP Growth C / CPI C- / Monetary C- (independent gauges)",
        "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
        "direction": "negative",
        "reasoning": "China data rule propagation: headline independent gauges, never official NBS/PBOC. Growth ~2-3% (Rhodium basis) = global median = C; GDP deflator -0.8% is persistent deflation with a debt overhang = price instability = C-; monetary policy fighting unbeaten deflation behind capital controls = C-. Overall stays C-: pillar mean 2.01 (C) minus the documented policy-arbitrariness overlay (Ant, DiDi, VIE non-ownership).",
        "evidence": [
          {
            "fact": "GDP deflator -0.8% 2025; independent growth ~2-3%; Chinn-Ito ~17 (bottom decile)",
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "source": "data/METHODOLOGY.md China rule; comparison charts"
          }
        ],
        "next_review_trigger": {
          "condition": "Q3 2026 review",
          "action": "re-check gauges",
          "review_by": "2026-09-30"
        },
        "supersedes": null
      }
    ]
  }
}