{
 "publisher": "Pacific Alpha Intelligence, LLC",
 "title": "Structured Judgement Corpus",
 "description": "Append-only record of every dated analytical judgement: grade changes, AFI pillar updates, recommendation rank changes, initiative stage transitions, and published event probability estimates. Records are never edited or deleted after publication; corrections are issued as new records referencing the original. This dated chain is the Pacific Alpha moat: it cannot be back-filled by a competitor.",
 "schema_version": "1.1",
 "append_only": true,
 "as_of": "2026-07-17",
 "posting_discipline": "Prior-at-posting (adopted 2026-07-17, standing-plan item 1): every NEW probability estimate must record its prior (base rate), the diagnostic evidence, and the published posterior IN THIS CORPUS at the moment it is posted. The on-page working lines are a rendering of these records, not the other way round — the working is method, not decoration. event_odds_consistency.js (verify.sh) fails the build if a live Event Odds card has no matching event_estimate record, if the record lacks a prior, or if the recorded posterior disagrees with any published surface.",
 "record_types": {
  "grade_change": "Country overall grade change. Fields: country, from, to, direction, reasoning, evidence[], next_review_trigger.",
  "kpi_grade_change": "Single-KPI grade change within a country scorecard. Adds field: kpi.",
  "afi_update": "Alpha Fragility Index pillar or composite change. Fields: country, pillar (or 'composite'), from, to, reasoning, evidence[].",
  "rec_rank_change": "Top-20 policy recommendation rank change. Fields: country, recommendation, prior_rank, new_rank, reasoning.",
  "initiative_stage": "Initiative tracker stage transition (Announced → Funded → Legislated → Delivered). Fields: country, initiative, from_stage, to_stage, evidence[].",
  "event_estimate": "A published probability estimate for a resolvable event (Event Odds page). Adds fields: question, event, prior{statement, base_rate_pct|null}, posterior_pct, resolves_by, resolution_authority, q3_prediction|null, outcome (null until resolved), brier (null until resolved), estimate_first_posted, working_published. Invalid without a recorded prior — the prior-at-posting rule."
 },
 "event_estimate_fields": {
  "question": "exact question text as published on the Event Odds card (used by event_odds_consistency.js to match card to record)",
  "event": "short stable slug, never reused",
  "prior": {
   "statement": "the base-rate argument, stated before evidence is applied",
   "base_rate_pct": "numeric base rate where one is defensible, else null (qualitative prior)"
  },
  "posterior_pct": "the published PA estimate, integer percent — must equal the card chip, the working line, and (where mapped) the Q3 predictions confidence",
  "resolves_by": "ISO date the question must resolve by",
  "resolution_authority": "who settles it — Pacific Alpha published record, or a named external source",
  "q3_prediction": "exact text of the linked Scored Predictions row, or null; if the linked prediction is a DIFFERENT question over a different window, state the coherence constraint instead",
  "outcome": "null until resolved, then 1 (hit) or 0 (miss)",
  "brier": "null until resolved, then (posterior_pct/100 - outcome)^2",
  "estimate_first_posted": "when the percentage first went live on the page",
  "working_published": "when the prior/evidence/posterior working was made public"
 },
 "record_schema": {
  "id": "JC-YYYY-NNNN, sequential, never reused",
  "type": "one of record_types",
  "country": "string",
  "date": "ISO date the judgement was made public",
  "analyst": "who scored it",
  "from": "prior value",
  "to": "new value",
  "prior_value_held_since": "ISO date the prior value was set (null if original coverage)",
  "direction": "positive | negative | neutral",
  "reasoning": "why, 2-4 sentences, the argument not just the facts",
  "evidence": [
   {
    "fact": "string",
    "date": "ISO date of the fact",
    "source": "named source"
   }
  ],
  "next_review_trigger": {
   "condition": "specific observable condition",
   "action": "what happens if met",
   "review_by": "ISO date"
  },
  "supersedes": "id of a corrected record, if any (null otherwise)"
 },
 "records": [
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0001",
   "type": "grade_change",
   "country": "Malaysia",
   "date": "2026-06-02",
   "analyst": "Brad Good",
   "from": "C+",
   "to": "C",
   "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
   "direction": "negative",
   "reasoning": "Two institutional-quality events in ninety days moved Malaysia from the upper to the middle of the C band. The failure of the parliamentary term-limit bill (Mar 2026) removed the cycle's clearest structural-reform marker, and UMNO's public break from the Anwar-led coalition (Jun 1) converted background coalition friction into live snap-election risk. Governance trajectory, not level, drove the change: the world-distribution percentile inputs were already borderline, and the political-execution pillar deteriorated.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Parliamentary term-limit bill failed to pass",
     "date": "2026-03",
     "source": "Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026 (Signals feed, pacificalphaintel.com)"
    },
    {
     "fact": "UMNO publicly broke from the Anwar (PH-led) governing coalition, introducing snap-election risk",
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "source": "Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026 (Signals feed, pacificalphaintel.com)"
    }
   ],
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Johor state election result (constitutionally due within 60 days of Jun 1, i.e. on or before Jul 29 2026): coalition loss of more than 15 seats, or a snap federal election call",
    "action": "review for downgrade to C-",
    "review_by": "2026-07-29"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0002",
   "type": "initiative_stage",
   "country": "ALL",
   "date": "2026-07-02",
   "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
   "from": "silent discretionary discounts",
   "to": "six-pillar composite + documented one-notch overlays",
   "prior_value_held_since": null,
   "direction": "neutral",
   "reasoning": "Audit found published grades sat 0.2-0.6 below KPI averages via undocumented discounts, and overlapping KPIs (institutions x3, monetary x2, income x3) carried accidental weight. Fix: six equal-weight pillars; capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito) and trade freedom (Heritage) added as graded Openness KPIs; overlays capped at one notch and recorded. Malaysia HELD at C (pillar mean implies C+) under the open Jun 2 Signal window — signal-set grades take precedence until their trigger resolves.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Reconciliation audit + pillar computation",
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "source": "reconcile_audit.js / pillar_grades.js"
    }
   ],
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Johor result (Malaysia re-set through pillar model)",
    "action": "re-grade Malaysia",
    "review_by": "2026-07-29"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0003",
   "type": "grade_change",
   "country": "Thailand",
   "date": "2026-07-02",
   "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
   "from": "D+",
   "to": "C-",
   "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
   "direction": "positive",
   "reasoning": "Pillar mean 2.00 (C) minus documented political-execution overlay (reform off the table; AFI 69). Methodology-driven revision, NOT a country-improvement call; the D+ verdict prose stands. Related live event resolved YES on technical grounds and flagged as such.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
    }
   ],
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
    "action": "re-grade",
    "review_by": "2026-09-30"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0004",
   "type": "grade_change",
   "country": "Japan",
   "date": "2026-07-02",
   "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
   "from": "B-",
   "to": "B",
   "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
   "direction": "positive",
   "reasoning": "Pillar mean 2.95 (B); no overlay warranted — the old B- embedded an undocumented -0.17 discount. Openness strong (capital account ~96 open), institutions B+.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
    }
   ],
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
    "action": "re-grade",
    "review_by": "2026-09-30"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0005",
   "type": "grade_change",
   "country": "Taiwan",
   "date": "2026-07-02",
   "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
   "from": "B-",
   "to": "B",
   "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
   "direction": "positive",
   "reasoning": "Pillar mean 3.37 (B+) minus the documented one-notch cross-strait overlay — a probability-weighted catastrophic tail no KPI captures. Previously a silent ~2-notch discount; now capped and recorded.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
    }
   ],
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
    "action": "re-grade",
    "review_by": "2026-09-30"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0006",
   "type": "grade_change",
   "country": "Hong Kong",
   "date": "2026-07-02",
   "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
   "from": "B-",
   "to": "B",
   "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
   "direction": "positive",
   "reasoning": "Pillar mean 3.30 (B+) minus the documented one-notch two-track-law overlay (commercial law top-decile; political law Beijing-determined; NSL/Art.23, judicial departures).",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Six-pillar equal-weight composite adopted; documented one-notch overlay cap",
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md"
    }
   ],
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Q3 2026 quarterly review re-run of the pillar model",
    "action": "re-grade",
    "review_by": "2026-09-30"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0007",
   "type": "kpi_grade_change",
   "country": "China",
   "date": "2026-07-02",
   "analyst": "Brad Good / PA methodology review",
   "from": "GDP Growth B- / CPI C+ / Monetary C+ (official-data based)",
   "to": "GDP Growth C / CPI C- / Monetary C- (independent gauges)",
   "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
   "direction": "negative",
   "reasoning": "China data rule propagation: headline independent gauges, never official NBS/PBOC. Growth ~2-3% (Rhodium basis) = global median = C; GDP deflator -0.8% is persistent deflation with a debt overhang = price instability = C-; monetary policy fighting unbeaten deflation behind capital controls = C-. Overall stays C-: pillar mean 2.01 (C) minus the documented policy-arbitrariness overlay (Ant, DiDi, VIE non-ownership).",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "GDP deflator -0.8% 2025; independent growth ~2-3%; Chinn-Ito ~17 (bottom decile)",
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "source": "data/METHODOLOGY.md China rule; comparison charts"
    }
   ],
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Q3 2026 review",
    "action": "re-check gauges",
    "review_by": "2026-09-30"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0008",
   "type": "kpi_grade_change",
   "country": "South Korea",
   "date": "2026-07-03",
   "analyst": "Brad Good / monthly FX review",
   "from": "Monetary Stability B+",
   "to": "Monetary Stability B",
   "prior_value_held_since": "2026-05",
   "direction": "negative",
   "reasoning": "The won broke the 1,300-1,450 range previously treated as structural (~1,530, -10% y/y). The downgrade is not on the FX level itself but on the demonstrated loss of monetary-policy room: BOK cannot cut into a weakening currency (60% of surveyed economists expect no 2026 cut for exactly this reason), the real policy rate is slightly negative (2.50% vs June CPI 3.2%) with inflation 1.2pp above target, and resident capital outflows now exceed the current-account surplus. Country grade B held: one notch on one KPI inside the Monetary pillar does not move the six-pillar mean.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "KRW ~1,530/USD, -10% y/y; through the stated 1,300-1,450 structural range",
     "date": "2026-06-18",
     "source": "Trading Economics interbank snapshot"
    },
    {
     "fact": "Residents invested $129.4B overseas Jan-Nov 2025 vs $101.8B current-account surplus; foreign net KOSPI selling W136.78T (~$89B) Jan-late Jun 2026",
     "date": "2026-06-30",
     "source": "Korea Times / KEIA"
    },
    {
     "fact": "60% of surveyed economists expect no BOK cut in 2026 amid won weakness",
     "date": "2026-02",
     "source": "KED Global"
    },
    {
     "fact": "BOK base rate 2.50% (held May 28, 8th consecutive); June CPI 3.2% -> real rate -0.7pp",
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "source": "Bank of Korea / Statistics Korea"
    }
   ],
   "next_review_trigger": "BOK meeting Jul 9 2026; won >1,550; or Q3 quarterly review - whichever first",
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0009",
   "type": "event_estimate",
   "country": "Malaysia",
   "date": "2026-07-17",
   "analyst": "Pacific Alpha (AI-drafted working, BG-reviewed) — prior-at-posting adoption",
   "question": "Will Pacific Alpha downgrade Malaysia to C− by September 30, 2026?",
   "event": "malaysia-c-minus-q3-2026",
   "from": null,
   "to": "40%",
   "prior_value_held_since": null,
   "direction": "neutral",
   "prior": {
    "statement": "A second grade notch inside one quarter is rare — the Jun 2 downgrade (C+ → C) already repriced the term-limit failure and the coalition fracture.",
    "base_rate_pct": null
   },
   "posterior_pct": 40,
   "reasoning": "The Johor poll (due ≤ Jul 29) is the one live variable; nothing new since Jun 2 is diagnostic on its own. The vivid fracture headlines are already in the grade, so the posterior stays below the coin flip. Record transcribes the published working line into the corpus per the prior-at-posting discipline adopted this date.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Jun 2 downgrade (C+ → C) already repriced the term-limit failure and the UMNO coalition fracture",
     "date": "2026-06-02",
     "source": "JC-2026-0001 / Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026"
    },
    {
     "fact": "Johor state election constitutionally due on or before Jul 29 2026 is the single scheduled diagnostic event",
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "source": "Malaysia 60-day election window; Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolves_by": "2026-09-30",
   "resolution_authority": "Pacific Alpha — published, timestamped grade record",
   "q3_prediction": "Pacific Alpha downgrades Malaysia from C to C−",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null,
   "estimate_first_posted": "2026-07",
   "working_published": "2026-07-16",
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Johor election result published",
    "action": "re-estimate; if the grade changes, resolve and Brier-score this record",
    "review_by": "2026-07-29"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0010",
   "type": "event_estimate",
   "country": "Philippines",
   "date": "2026-07-17",
   "analyst": "Pacific Alpha (AI-drafted working, BG-reviewed) — prior-at-posting adoption",
   "question": "Will Pacific Alpha grade the Philippines C− or lower at first coverage?",
   "event": "philippines-first-grade-q3-2026",
   "from": null,
   "to": "60%",
   "prior_value_held_since": null,
   "direction": "neutral",
   "prior": {
    "statement": "On the six-pillar world scale, ASEAN peers land in the C band — Thailand C−, Vietnam C−, Malaysia C — so C− or lower is close to the regional base rate, not a bold call.",
    "base_rate_pct": null
   },
   "posterior_pct": 60,
   "reasoning": "Q1 2026 GDP of 2.8% (a five-year low, PSA) and thin disbursed FDI pull the first-pass estimate down; no offsetting institutional strength observed yet. Record transcribes the published working line into the corpus per the prior-at-posting discipline.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Philippines Q1 2026 GDP growth 2.8% — a five-year low",
     "date": "2026-04",
     "source": "Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)"
    },
    {
     "fact": "Disbursed FDI thin: Jan $443M / Feb $590M (Mar NA)",
     "date": "2026-05",
     "source": "Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)"
    }
   ],
   "resolves_by": "2026-09-30",
   "resolution_authority": "Pacific Alpha — first published Philippines grade, Q3 2026 coverage launch",
   "q3_prediction": "The Philippines' first published grade is C− or lower",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null,
   "estimate_first_posted": "2026-07",
   "working_published": "2026-07-16",
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Philippines first grade published at Q3 coverage launch",
    "action": "resolve and Brier-score this record",
    "review_by": "2026-09-30"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0011",
   "type": "event_estimate",
   "country": "Malaysia",
   "date": "2026-07-17",
   "analyst": "Pacific Alpha (AI-drafted working, BG-reviewed) — prior-at-posting adoption",
   "question": "Will Malaysia's Alpha Fragility Index exceed 55 by the Q3 2026 review?",
   "event": "malaysia-afi-55-q3-2026",
   "from": null,
   "to": "45%",
   "prior_value_held_since": null,
   "direction": "neutral",
   "prior": {
    "statement": "The AFI sits at 49; a +6 move in a single review requires a discrete shock, not drift.",
    "base_rate_pct": null
   },
   "posterior_pct": 45,
   "reasoning": "Exactly one such shock is scheduled — the Johor result — and it is binary. A coin flip by construction, and stated as one. Record transcribes the published working line into the corpus per the prior-at-posting discipline.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Malaysia AFI composite currently 49",
     "date": "2026-07",
     "source": "Pacific Alpha AFI, pacificalphaintel.com"
    },
    {
     "fact": "Johor election (≤ Jul 29) is the single scheduled binary shock before the Q3 review",
     "date": "2026-06-01",
     "source": "Pacific Alpha Signal, Jun 2 2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolves_by": "2026-09-30",
   "resolution_authority": "Pacific Alpha — published Q3 AFI composite",
   "q3_prediction": "Malaysia's AFI exceeds 55 at the Q3 review",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null,
   "estimate_first_posted": "2026-07",
   "working_published": "2026-07-16",
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Q3 2026 AFI review published",
    "action": "resolve and Brier-score this record",
    "review_by": "2026-09-30"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0012",
   "type": "event_estimate",
   "country": "Japan",
   "date": "2026-07-17",
   "analyst": "Pacific Alpha (AI-drafted working, BG-reviewed) — prior-at-posting adoption",
   "question": "Will the Bank of Japan raise the policy rate again to 1.25% by year-end?",
   "event": "boj-125-yearend-2026",
   "from": null,
   "to": "55%",
   "prior_value_held_since": null,
   "direction": "neutral",
   "prior": {
    "statement": "A tightening cycle is already in motion — the BoJ hiked to 1.00% in June 2026, so 'another hike' is a continuation call, not a regime call.",
    "base_rate_pct": null
   },
   "posterior_pct": 55,
   "reasoning": "Oil-driven CPI persistence argues yes; the BoJ's historical caution argues slower. Coherence note: the Q3 scored prediction 'The BoJ policy rate is still 1.00% on Sep 30' at 65% is a DIFFERENT question over a shorter window — it implies P(hike by Sep 30) = 35%, which must not exceed this record's P(hike by Dec 31) = 55%. Constraint holds; event_odds_consistency.js checks it mechanically. Record transcribes the published working line into the corpus per the prior-at-posting discipline.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "BoJ raised the policy rate +25bp to 1.00% (7–1 vote), its highest since 1995, on oil-driven upside inflation risk",
     "date": "2026-06-16",
     "source": "Bank of Japan, Statement on Monetary Policy, Jun 16 2026"
    },
    {
     "fact": "Oil-driven CPI persistence continues above the BoJ's comfort band",
     "date": "2026-06",
     "source": "Japan CPI prints, May–Jun 2026 (site KPI data)"
    }
   ],
   "resolves_by": "2026-12-31",
   "resolution_authority": "Bank of Japan statement (external)",
   "q3_prediction": "COHERENCE LINK (not the same question): 'The BoJ policy rate is still 1.00% on Sep 30' @ 65% ⇒ P(hike ≤ Sep 30) = 35% ≤ this posterior 55%",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null,
   "estimate_first_posted": "2026-07",
   "working_published": "2026-07-16",
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Any BoJ policy-rate decision through Dec 31 2026",
    "action": "resolve at year-end and Brier-score this record",
    "review_by": "2026-12-31"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0013",
   "type": "event_estimate",
   "country": "Indonesia",
   "date": "2026-07-17",
   "analyst": "Pacific Alpha (AI-drafted working, BG-reviewed) — prior-at-posting adoption",
   "question": "Will Pacific Alpha grade Indonesia B− or higher at first coverage?",
   "event": "indonesia-first-grade-q3-2026",
   "from": null,
   "to": "35%",
   "prior_value_held_since": null,
   "direction": "neutral",
   "prior": {
    "statement": "Only 5 of the 10 markets PA covers grade B− or better on the world scale — B-band is the exception, not the norm.",
    "base_rate_pct": 50
   },
   "posterior_pct": 35,
   "reasoning": "Growth supports; institutional pillars (governance, data transparency) cap the first-pass ceiling, pulling the posterior below the 5-of-10 coverage base rate. Record transcribes the published working line into the corpus per the prior-at-posting discipline.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "5 of the 10 PA-covered markets grade B− or better under the six-pillar world-distribution scale",
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "source": "GRADE_METHODOLOGY_REVIEW_2026-07-02.md / site grade cards"
    },
    {
     "fact": "Indonesia Q1 2026 GDP growth 5.61% supports; governance and data-transparency pillars cap the ceiling",
     "date": "2026-05",
     "source": "BPS (growth); PA pillar model (institutions)"
    }
   ],
   "resolves_by": "2026-09-30",
   "resolution_authority": "Pacific Alpha — first published Indonesia grade, Q3 2026 coverage launch",
   "q3_prediction": "Indonesia's first published grade is B− or higher",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null,
   "estimate_first_posted": "2026-07",
   "working_published": "2026-07-16",
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "Indonesia first grade published at Q3 coverage launch",
    "action": "resolve and Brier-score this record",
    "review_by": "2026-09-30"
   },
   "supersedes": null
  },
  {
   "id": "JC-2026-0014",
   "type": "event_estimate",
   "country": "Japan",
   "date": "2026-07-20",
   "analyst": "Pacific Alpha (Fable 5 estimate; BG delegated the posterior 2026-07-20 — 'use your guess'; BG approved the accompanying Policy Execution Signal)",
   "question": "Will a spot Bitcoin ETF be listed on a Japanese exchange by December 31, 2027?",
   "event": "japan-spot-btc-etf-by-2027",
   "from": null,
   "to": "60%",
   "prior_value_held_since": null,
   "direction": "neutral",
   "prior": {
    "statement": "Enabling legislation to first product listing has typically run 1.5-2+ years in comparable regimes (secondary rulemaking plus exchange build-out); 'listed within ~2.5 years of the law' is a moderate base rate.",
    "base_rate_pct": 50
   },
   "posterior_pct": 60,
   "reasoning": "Strict end-2027 bar chosen deliberately over a softer end-2028 bar (~80% defensible) - the sharper falsifiable call. Above base rate because: the FIEA amendment passed with government momentum, the framework is operative FY2027 (Apr 2027, leaving ~9 months of listing window), JPX is reportedly preparing infrastructure ahead of rulemaking, and issuer demand is evident. Held below 65% because FSA secondary rulemaking is unfinished, nothing is filed, and the official projection is 'no earlier than 2027' with no commitment inside it.",
   "evidence": [
    {
     "fact": "Diet passed the FIEA amendment reclassifying ~105 crypto assets as financial instruments",
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "source": "multi-outlet verification 2026-07-19 (session notes)"
    },
    {
     "fact": "Framework operative fiscal 2027; first listings officially projected 'no earlier than 2027', pending FSA secondary rulemaking; no product filed",
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "source": "verified web search 2026-07-19"
    },
    {
     "fact": "JPX reportedly preparing ETF infrastructure",
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "source": "verified web search 2026-07-19"
    }
   ],
   "resolves_by": "2027-12-31",
   "resolution_authority": "External - JPX listing record",
   "q3_prediction": null,
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null,
   "estimate_first_posted": "2026-07",
   "working_published": null,
   "next_review_trigger": {
    "condition": "First spot-BTC ETF prospectus filed with the FSA, or FSA secondary rulemaking published, whichever first",
    "action": "update posterior; publish Event Odds card working line if not yet live"
   }
  }
 ]
}